Pair #4162

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAHOCKEY-26-MNK

Will Merrimack win the College Hockey National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAHOCKEY
Entity: Merrimack
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 5390

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Merrimack is the 2026 College Hockey National Championship winner, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAHOCKEYGAME-26MAR262030MMKUND-MMK

Merrimack vs North Dakota Winner?

Series: KXNCAAHOCKEYGAME
Entity: Merrimack
Expiration: 2026-03-27T03:30:00Z
Volume: 70836

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Merrimack is the winner (inclusive of overtime but excluding shootouts) of the Merrimack vs North Dakota college hockey game scheduled for Mar 26, 2026 at 8:30 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: need more info
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:15:31Z

Reasoning: If Merrimack wins the national championship, they must win all their tournament games. However, it's unclear whether the Mar 26 game vs North Dakota is a required game on the path to the championship (e.g., a specific bracket game), or whether Merrimack could reach the championship via a different path that doesn't include this specific game. If this is a scheduled tournament game Merrimack must play and win to advance, the implication holds. Without knowing the bracket structure and whether this game is on Merrimack's necessary path, we cannot confirm the logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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