Pair #416

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLHART-26-NMAC

Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?

Series: KXNHLHART
Entity: Nathan MacKinnon
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 572169

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nathan MacKinnon wins the NHL Hart Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLROSS-26-NMAC

Who will win Art Ross Trophy?

Series: KXNHLROSS
Entity: Nathan MacKinnon
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 27241

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nathan MacKinnon wins the NHL Art Ross Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:15Z

Reasoning: Winning the Hart Trophy does not require winning the Art Ross (top points scorer), and vice versa. A player can win MVP without leading in points, and can lead in points without winning MVP.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 200.81% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9500
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: +196.62% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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