Pair #415

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLHART-26-NMAC

Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?

Series: KXNHLHART
Entity: Nathan MacKinnon
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 544838

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nathan MacKinnon wins the NHL Hart Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLRICHARD-26-NMAC

Who will win Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy?

Series: KXNHLRICHARD
Entity: Nathan MacKinnon
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 7270

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nathan MacKinnon wins the NHL Maurice "Rocket" Richard Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:15Z

Reasoning: Winning the Hart Trophy (MVP) does not require leading in goals, and leading in goals does not require winning MVP. These are independent awards. A player can win the Hart without winning the Richard (e.g., a high-points defenseman or playmaker), and can win the Richard without winning the Hart.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9000
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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