Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ADUM
Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2100
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adrien Dumont De Chassart is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-ADUM
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2159
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:14:46Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 10, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A