Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-CHAM
Will Cole Hammer lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Cole Hammer
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 907
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Cole Hammer is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-CHAM
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Cole Hammer finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cole Hammer
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2726
YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Cole Hammer finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:14:46Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20 — a player can lead after R1 and then collapse over the remaining rounds. Finishing top 20 does not imply leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.2100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A