Pair #4140

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-CHAM

Will Cole Hammer lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Cole Hammer
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 907

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cole Hammer is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-CHAM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Cole Hammer finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cole Hammer
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2726

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cole Hammer finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:14:46Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20 — a player can lead after R1 and then collapse over the remaining rounds. Finishing top 20 does not imply leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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