Pair #414

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLHART-26-CMAK

Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?

Series: KXNHLHART
Entity: Cale Makar
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 11545

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cale Makar wins the NHL Hart Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLNORRIS-26-CMAK

Who will win James Norris Memorial Trophy?

Series: KXNHLNORRIS
Entity: Cale Makar
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 63249

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cale Makar wins the NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:59Z

Reasoning: Winning the Hart Trophy (MVP) does not logically necessitate winning the Norris Trophy (best defenseman), and vice versa. They are separate awards. A player could win one without winning the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -64.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -69.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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