Pair #4126

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-MSCH

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matti Schmid make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 476

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matti Schmid has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MSCH

Will Matti Schmid lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2620

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matti Schmid is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:14:26Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (could collapse in R2), and making the cut does not require having led after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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