Pair #4123

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-RCAS

Will Ricky Castillo lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11237

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ricky Castillo is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-RCAS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ricky Castillo finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2923

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ricky Castillo finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:14:09Z

Reasoning: Leading after R1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish, and finishing top 20 does not require leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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