Pair #4121

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-RCAS

Will Ricky Castillo win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 279773

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ricky Castillo wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-RCAS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ricky Castillo finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2923

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ricky Castillo finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:14:09Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily top 20. Finishing top 20 does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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