Pair #4103

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-NSHI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Neal Shipley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1607

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Neal Shipley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-NSHI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Neal Shipley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1055

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Neal Shipley has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:13:54Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means Shipley made the cut (you cannot finish top 10 without surviving the cut). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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