Pair #4102

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-NSHI

Will Neal Shipley win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 31099

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Neal Shipley wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-NSHI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Neal Shipley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6219

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Neal Shipley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:13:54Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is inside the top 20. So a win necessarily implies a top-20 finish. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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