Pair #41

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOMEN-26-DRA

Will Jack Draper win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Jack Draper
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 10395

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Jack Draper wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JDRA

Will Jack Draper win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jack Draper
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2269

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jack Draper wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:19Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open necessarily means winning a Grand Slam in 2026. The reverse does not hold — Draper could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -91.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -95.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-16T23:07:11Z

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