Pair #4072

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MMCG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 611

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max McGreevy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MMCG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7177

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max McGreevy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:13:00Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue