Pair #4070

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MMCG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 611

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max McGreevy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MMCG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 696

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max McGreevy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:13:00Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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