Pair #4069

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MMCG

Will Max McGreevy lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1682

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max McGreevy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MMCG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7177

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max McGreevy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:13:00Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20 — a player can miss the cut or fall well outside top 20. Top 20 finish does not require leading R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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