Pair #4065

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MMCG

Will Max McGreevy win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 25056

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max McGreevy wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MMCG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 696

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max McGreevy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:41Z

Reasoning: If McGreevy wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily in the top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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