Pair #4061

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-PROD

Will Patrick Rodgers lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Patrick Rodgers
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12574

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Rodgers is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-PROD

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Patrick Rodgers finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Patrick Rodgers
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 920

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Rodgers finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:41Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 5 finish overall (could fall), and finishing top 5 overall does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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