Pair #4058

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MMEI

Will Mac Meissner lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 499

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MMEI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 258

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:41Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish overall (could fall significantly), and finishing top 20 overall does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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