Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-MMEI
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 255
YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MMEI
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 258
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:41Z
Reasoning: Top 10 after Round 1 does not imply top 20 overall (could finish outside top 20), and top 20 overall does not require being top 10 after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A