Pair #4056

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-MMEI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 255

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MMEI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 258

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:41Z

Reasoning: Top 10 after Round 1 does not imply top 20 overall (could finish outside top 20), and top 20 overall does not require being top 10 after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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