Pair #4055

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-MMEI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 255

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MMEI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 721

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:41Z

Reasoning: Top 10 in Round 1 does not imply top 10 in the overall tournament (could fall), and finishing top 10 overall does not require being top 10 after Round 1 (could start poorly and recover). No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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