Pair #4054

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MMEI

Will Mac Meissner lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 499

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-MMEI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 255

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:41Z

Reasoning: If Meissner leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 10 after Round 1. However, finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply leading. So the lead implies top 10, not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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