Pair #4050

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-MMEI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 255

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MMEI

Will Mac Meissner win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7816

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:22Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 — a player can win despite a mediocre first round. And finishing top 10 in R1 does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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