Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MPAV
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2536
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matthieu Pavon finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MPAV
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2498
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matthieu Pavon finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:22Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A