Pair #4049

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MPAV

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2536

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthieu Pavon finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MPAV

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2498

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthieu Pavon finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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