Pair #4048

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MPAV

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4409

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthieu Pavon finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MPAV

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2536

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthieu Pavon finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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