Pair #4047

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-MPAV

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 867

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthieu Pavon has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MPAV

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2536

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthieu Pavon finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:22Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish — many players make the cut and finish outside the top 10. A top 10 finish does imply making the cut, but that direction is B→A, and top 10 finishing is not Event A here. Wait — top 10 finish (B) does imply making the cut (A). So antecedent is B, consequent is A.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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