Pair #4046

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MPAV

Will Matthieu Pavon lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 500

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthieu Pavon is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MPAV

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2498

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthieu Pavon finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:22Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate a top 20 final finish — the player could fade significantly. And a top 20 finish does not require leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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