KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MPAV
Will Matthieu Pavon lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 500
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-MPAV
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 867
YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.6200
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:22Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 means Pavon is among the best scorers after R1, which virtually guarantees making the cut. A R1 leader cannot miss the cut since the cut is made after R2 and a leader after R1 would need to collapse dramatically — but logically, leading R1 does not GUARANTEE making the cut (a player could withdraw or be disqualified). However, in standard PGA Tour rules, a player who completes R1 as the leader and completes R2 would make the cut. But withdrawal/DQ is possible. Still, the directional implication is weak. Actually, leading R1 does not logically necessitate making the cut — the player could withdraw injured or be DQ'd. Setting confidence to low.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.7700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A
Not yet reviewed.
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