Pair #4042

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MPAV

Will Matthieu Pavon win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 296847

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthieu Pavon wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MPAV

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2536

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthieu Pavon finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:12:22Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — a top 10 finish does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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