Pair #4040

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-LHOD

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Lee Hodges make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 351

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lee Hodges has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-LHOD

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Lee Hodges finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 327

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lee Hodges finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:11:59Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish (many players make the cut but finish outside top 20). Finishing top 20 implies making the cut (B→A), but making the cut does not imply top 20. No implication from A to B or B to A in the required sense — note the valid direction is B implies A, but B (top 20) does not necessitate A (make cut) is wrong — actually top 20 DOES necessitate making the cut. Re-evaluating: KXPGATOP20 implies KXPGAMAKECUT, so B→A is valid.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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