Pair #404

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26MAR22OMLIL-4

Lille at Marseille: Totals

Series: KXLIGUE1TOTAL
Entity: Over 4.5 goals scored
Expiration: 2026-03-22T20:15:00Z
Volume: 1020

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lille and Marseille collectively score more than 4.5 total goals in the Lille at Marseille professional Ligue 1 soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXUCLTOTAL-26MAR18BMUATA-4

Atalanta at Bayern Munich: Totals

Series: KXUCLTOTAL
Entity: Over 4.5 goals scored
Expiration: 2026-03-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 463

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Atalanta and Bayern Munich collectively score more than 4.5 total goals in the Atalanta at Bayern Munich professional Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:59Z

Reasoning: These are independent soccer games in different competitions. No logical implication exists between them.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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