Pair #4038

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-LHOD

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Lee Hodges make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 351

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lee Hodges has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-LHOD

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Lee Hodges finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6518

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lee Hodges finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:11:59Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish. Finishing top 10 does imply making the cut, so the implication runs from B to A — but the question asks about A implying B or B implying A. Top 10 → made cut is the valid direction here.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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