Pair #4032

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-LGLO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Lucas Glover finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Lucas Glover
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1129

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lucas Glover finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-LGLO

Will Lucas Glover win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Lucas Glover
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4489

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lucas Glover wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:11:59Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 (a player can win after a mediocre first round). Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply winning the tournament. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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