Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-KVIL
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 750
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-KVIL
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7713
YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:11:59Z
Reasoning: If Vilips finishes top 5 (including ties), he necessarily finishes top 20 as well since top 5 is a subset of top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.2700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A