Pair #4031

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-KVIL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 750

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-KVIL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7713

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:11:59Z

Reasoning: If Vilips finishes top 5 (including ties), he necessarily finishes top 20 as well since top 5 is a subset of top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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