Pair #4030

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-KVIL

Will Karl Vilips lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 935

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Karl Vilips is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-KVIL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7713

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:11:59Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20 overall (could miss cut or fall back). Finishing top 20 overall does not require having led after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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