Pair #4024

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-KROY

Will Kevin Roy lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Kevin Roy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10351

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Roy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-KROY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Kevin Roy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Kevin Roy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2622

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Roy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:11:35Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 final finish. Finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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