Pair #4020

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-JSVE

Will Jesper Svensson lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jesper Svensson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 41637

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jesper Svensson is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-JSVE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jesper Svensson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jesper Svensson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4805

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jesper Svensson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:11:35Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (a player could miss the cut or fall far down the leaderboard). Finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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