Pair #4004

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-DFOR

Will David Ford lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: David Ford
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7992

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Ford is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-DFOR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will David Ford finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: David Ford
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 388

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Ford finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:11:00Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate a top 10 overall finish (could fade in later rounds), and a top 10 overall finish does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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