Pair #40

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOMEN-26-DRA

Will Jack Draper win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Jack Draper
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1532

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Jack Draper wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-DRA

Will Jack Draper win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Jack Draper
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 298

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jack Draper wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:19Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open and the French Open are separate tournaments. Winning one does not logically necessitate winning the other in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -16.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:53:47Z

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