Pair #4

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOWOMEN-26-SWI

Will Iga Swiatek win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Iga Swiatek
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 13151

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3000

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Rules

If Iga Swiatek wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-ISWI

Will Iga Swiatek win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Iga Swiatek
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3443

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Iga Swiatek wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:30Z

Reasoning: If Swiatek wins the French Open, she has won a Grand Slam. The reverse does not hold — she could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -45.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -49.35% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-16T23:07:31Z

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