Pair #3995

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-DWAL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Danny Walker finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Danny Walker
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1131

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Walker finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-DWAL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Danny Walker finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Danny Walker
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1374

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Walker finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:11:00Z

Reasoning: A top 5 Round 1 finish does not logically necessitate a top 20 overall finish (could collapse in later rounds), and a top 20 overall finish does not require a top 5 Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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