Pair #3990

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ECOL

Will Eric Cole lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Eric Cole
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 935

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Eric Cole is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ECOL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Eric Cole finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Eric Cole
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1681

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Eric Cole finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:10:42Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 final finish, and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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