Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-MTL
Will Montréal Canadiens win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Montréal Canadiens
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 3949522
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Montréal Canadiens win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPRES-26-MTL
Will the Montréal Canadiens win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?
Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Montréal Canadiens
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2890
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Montréal Canadiens wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:44Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not necessitate winning the President's Trophy — Cup champions need not have the best regular season record. Winning the President's Trophy does not guarantee winning the Cup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
0.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0000
Days to maturity:
30
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-4.22%
BELOW HURDLE