Pair #3983

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-EGRI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Emiliano Grillo make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Emiliano Grillo
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3762

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Emiliano Grillo has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-EGRI

Will Emiliano Grillo lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Emiliano Grillo
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10853

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Emiliano Grillo is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:10:42Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player could lead R1 but play poorly in R2 and miss the cut. Making the cut does not imply leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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