Pair #3981

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-CBEZ

Will Christiaan Bezuidenhout lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5566

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Christiaan Bezuidenhout is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-CBEZ

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Christiaan Bezuidenhout finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 646

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Christiaan Bezuidenhout finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:10:22Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top-10 finish. A top-10 finish does not require leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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