Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-CRAM
Will Chad Ramey lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Chad Ramey
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3273
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chad Ramey is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-CRAM
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chad Ramey finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chad Ramey
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3376
YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.4500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chad Ramey finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:10:22Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top-20 finish. A top-20 finish does not require leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.4400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A