Pair #3976

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-CRAM

Will Chad Ramey lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Chad Ramey
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3273

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chad Ramey is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-CRAM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chad Ramey finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chad Ramey
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1024

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chad Ramey finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:10:22Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top-10 finish. A top-10 finish does not require leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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