Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-BHOS
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Beau Hossler make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Beau Hossler
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 332
YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.5100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Beau Hossler has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-BHOS
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Beau Hossler finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Beau Hossler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10897
YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.4100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Beau Hossler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:10:22Z
Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish (could finish outside top 20 after making the cut). Finishing top 20 implies making the cut, but the top-20 market resolves Yes only for top-20 finishes, so top-20 → made cut is true in practice. However, the make-cut market could also resolve Yes for players who made cut but finished outside top 20. Strictly: top-20 finish DOES imply making the cut, but make-cut does NOT imply top-20. Yet the consequent here is the top-20 market, so KXPGATOP20 → KXPGAMAKECUT would be the valid direction. Let me reassess: if top-20 resolves YES, then Hossler finished top 20, which means he made the cut (YES). So KXPGATOP20 implies KXPGAMAKECUT.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A