Pair #3972

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-BHOS

Will Beau Hossler lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Beau Hossler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1661

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Beau Hossler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-BHOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Beau Hossler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Beau Hossler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10897

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Beau Hossler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:10:22Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top-20 finish. A top-20 finish does not require leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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