Pair #3967

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-EVAN

Will Erik Van Rooyen lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Erik Van Rooyen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1870

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Erik Van Rooyen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-EVAN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Erik Van Rooyen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Erik Van Rooyen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2801

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Erik Van Rooyen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:59Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 overall finish (could fade significantly), and finishing top 20 overall does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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