Pair #3966

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-EVAN

Will Erik Van Rooyen win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Erik Van Rooyen
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2045

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Erik Van Rooyen wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-EVAN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Erik Van Rooyen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Erik Van Rooyen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2801

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Erik Van Rooyen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:59Z

Reasoning: If Van Rooyen wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold: finishing top 20 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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